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The purpose of this study is to explore the lead-lag relations of Taiwan’s business cycles with the production values of wood and bamboo products, compiled by the Census and Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs from January 1994 to December, 2018. We apply the business cycle indicators in Taiwan published by the National Development Council and the highest and lowest points of the stock market index to measure the Taiwan’s business cycles. The results of the research are as follows:
First of all, the five types of production values indicates that the market demand for wood and bamboo products become more conservative during the period of recession. On the other hand, when the prosperity rises from the bottom of the valley, it will stimulate the manufacturing of wood and bamboo products and promote the production value of wood and bamboo products.
Second, the production values of the finished products lag behind the peaks and bottoms of the business cycles or the stock market, implying that such production values are affected by the business circles. As the economy rises, it can stimulate the production values of veneer sheets and wood-based panels, wooden products for construction, wooden containers, and other wood products.
Third, around the business cycle reach to the peaks and troughs, the percentage difference between the production values of the finished products is between 5.25% and 5.83%. Indicating that he production values of the finished products is not the same as the peak or the troughs of the market, and the production values is relatively stable. |