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This study analyzed the correlation between Taiwan's business cycles and pulp–related industry production values from January 1994 to December 2018, taking Taiwan pulp–related industries (pulp, paper, cardboard, household and toilet paper) as the research object. This paper takes the National Development Council's business climate cycle benchmark date as the base period for analysis, get the following three main conclusions: First, all paper–related industries upstream and downstream production value, are lagging behind the peak of the business and the bottom of the valley, so the business rate for the paper–related industry are leading pointer, can be used as an important basis for pre–analysis. Second, the peak period of the peak period of finished products and semi–finished products backwardness gap is small, the trough period gap is larger, in the recession period, semi–finished pulp will be more slow to the bottom, so the finished products faster reflect the market depression. Third, household and toilet paper due to close to the characteristics of people's livelihood supplies, whether in the peak or trough of the business, its volatility is the lowest; In addition, this paper also uses the stock market benchmark date as the base period analysis, its research results and the above–mentioned roughly consistent, in the business and large market peak and valley average statistical analysis, the results of the study and the aforementioned conclusions are also exactly the same, showing the robustness of the results of this paper. |